We assess the marginal predictive content of a large international dataset for forecasting GDP in New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to efficiently handle hundreds of predictor series from many countries. The methods covered are...

We assess the marginal predictive content of a large international dataset for forecasting GDP in New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply “data-rich” factor and shrinkage methods to efficiently handle hundreds of predictor series from many countries. The methods covered are...

Eric Leeper, Professor of Economics at Indiana University, visited New Zealand in October and November 2008 as part of the Professorial Fellowship in Monetary and Financial Economics sponsored by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Victoria University of Wellington.1 Professor Leeper is also a...

This article reproduces the paper for a speech given by Governor Alan Bollard on 30 January 2009 to the Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, Christchurch, New Zealand. It discusses the causes and consequences of the credit boom this decade in developed Western economies, the policy...

The MONIAC hydraulic computer is an example of a mechanical economic model dating to the 1940s. This article introduces the MONIAC and its creator, New Zealand economist Bill Phillips. Although the MONIAC is not used for policy analysis at the Reserve Bank, large-scale, practical macroeconomic...

We study how US credit supply shocks are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983–2009. We experiment with inter-country links based on bilateral trade,...