We contribute to the empirical literature on the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area by estimating a Bayesian VAR model identified with sign restrictions. The variables included in the VAR are those typically used in monetary policy analysis, extended to include aggregate banking...

This paper develops a structural macro econometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, to facilitate multilaterally consistent macrofinancial policy, risk and spillover analysis. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of...

The Basel Accord assumes an inverse relationship between the probability of default and the asset correlation parameter, with the latter being responsible for modeling the degree of cyclicality of default rates. Previous empirical studies that embedded the formula of the Basel Accord into a...

Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

In credit portfolio modeling the asset correlation parameter is used to describe the degree of default rates fluctuations. In this article we estimate the asset correlation parameter for banks and other industry sectors from default data. We find that estimates of the asset correlation vary...

We consider two agency-theory-based structural models and a reduced form model of bank inefficiency. The two structural models assume that the inefficiencies and quantities are sequentially and simultaneously determined, respectfully. The reduced form model assumes that inefficiency of a bank...

We consider a stochastic multiplicative-directional-distance-function-based formulation of the production technology in the presence of bad outputs. In contrast to the popular additive directional distance function, our approach preserves the highly desired scale invariance property of the...

Longitudinal network data are increasingly available, allowing researchers to model how networks evolve over time and to make inference on their dependence structure. In this paper, a dynamic latent space approach is used to model directed networks of monthly interbank exposures. In this model,...

We study the contribution of loans, granted to different borrower groups, to economic activity in the USA over the period 1971q1-2018q4. Significant economic recessions occurred along the period considered, we center our discussion around the recent Global Financial Crisis. Results are delivered...