We estimate a macro-finance yield curve model for both the nominal and real forward curve for the UK from 1993 to 2008. Our model is able to accommodate a number of key macroeconomic variables and allows us to estimate the instantaneous response of the yield curve and so gauge the impact of...

Prior to the financial crisis mainstream monetary policy practice had become disconnected from money. We outline the basic rationale for this development using a simple model of money and credit in which we explore the conditions under which money matters directly for the conduct of policy....

The benchmark sticky-price microfounded model yielded a number of insights for monetary policymakers but failed to consider the implications arising from easy money and expanding credit and balance sheets. The promising search for a microfounded workhorse model of financial frictions is still in...

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle...

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks...

Price-level determination requires co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy to ensure a unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE). This paper derives a number of implications for simple interest rate rules resulting from various fiscal strategies. We show that fiscal choices under either...

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii)...