An interior-point method for solving mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints (MPECs) is proposed. At each iteration of the algorithm, a single primaldual step is computed from each subproblem of a sequence. Each subproblem is defined as a relaxation of the MPEC with a nonempty...

This article presents a comparison of four methods to compute the posterior probabilities of the possible orders in polynomial regression models. These posterior probabilities are used for forecasting by using Bayesian model averaging. It is shown that Bayesian model averaging provides a closer...

Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations. First, it does not incorporate the...

It is well-known that classical p-values sometimes behave incoherently for testing hypotheses in the sense that, when '0 0 T .T , the support given to 0 T is greater than or equal to the support given to '0 T . This problem is also found for posterior predictive p-values (a Bayesian-motivated...

In this paper, we provide a method for constructing confidence intervals for the variance that exhibit guaranteed coverage probability for any sample size, uniformly over a wide class of probability distributions. In contrast, standard methods achieve guaranteed coverage only in the limit for a...

In this paper, a new procedure for testing the number of linear components in a general regression problem is introduced. It is based on a nonparametric estimate of the covariance matrix of the inverse regression curve. A review of previous dimension tests is also presented.

In this paper we estimate, for several investment horizons, minimum capital risk requirements for short and long positions, using the unconditional distribution of three daily indexes futures returns and a set of GARCH-type and stochastic volatility models. We consider the possibility that...

Analyses are presented of 84 quarterly observations 1/85-4/05 on two U.S. index numbers of nominal prices often employed to measure inflation. Analyses are designed to answer two key questions of interest to macroeconomists. Is inflation stationary (I(0)) or stochastically non-stationary (I(1))?...

Given a data set in the multivariate Euclidean space, we study regions of central points built by averaging all their subsets with a fixed number of elements. The averaging of these sets is performed by appropriately scaling the Minkowski or elementwise summation of their convex hulls. The...

According to the Taylor-Effect the autocorrelations of absolute financial returns are higher than the ones of squared returns. In this work, we analyze this empirical property for three different asymmetric stochastic volatility models, with short and/or long memory. Specially, we investigate...