The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies...

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at...

In this note, we propose a cluster method as a simple predictive tool to forecast exchange rates (specifically the Japanese Yen and the British Pound against the US Dollar). The general goal in this study is two-fold. First of all, we verify whether or not we can accurately predict the exchange...

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration...

This article investigates the statistical and economic implications of adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data and alternative predictors. The candidate exchange rate predictors are drawn from (i) macroeconomic ‘fundamentals’, (ii) return/volatility of asset markets and (iii)...

Exchange value is one of the significant tools for investors in decision making. Since exchange values are volatile and they change within short periods, investors need an effective method to minimize the risk. This study compares the prediction performances of artificial neural networks, which...

This paper examines the Rational Expectation Hypothesis in the context of the foreign exchange market for the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Frank against US Dollar using twelve years of monthly survey data. The study uses ADF and DF-GLS unit root tests, and applies the restricted...

This study investigates the use of two different types of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Feed-Forward (FF) Neural Network and Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network, in forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the three major currencies: the...

The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....