It is shown that when monetary authorities manage the interest rate through anti-inflationary policy rules which allow for occasional discrete shifts, then a Markov switching regimes representation is appropriate for the exchange rate and the interest rate differential series. In this setting,...

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an...

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fedٳ reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

The purpose of this article is to propose and highlight a statistical estimation procedure for joint identification of irregularities in population distribution in urban areas having a directional dimension, and the estimation of the parameters of the model's separate regimes. The method we...

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning does better or worse than a model of rational expectations, and we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from...

We investigate in this paper a perpetual prepayment option related to a corporate loan. The short interest rate and default intensity of the firm are supposed to follow CIR processes. A liquidity term that represents the funding costs of the bank is introduced and modeled as a continuous time...

The aim of this paper is to identify the fundamental factors that drive the allowances market and to built an APT-like model in order to provide accurate forecasts for CO2. We show that historic dependency patterns emphasis energy, natural gas, oil, coal and equity indexes as major factors...

The aim of this paper is to show evidence and to quantify with forensic econometric methods the impact of the Value Added Tax fraud on European carbon allowances markets. This fraud mainly occurred at the beginning of between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In this paper, we explore...

We investigate in this paper a perpetual prepayment option related to a corporate loan. The default intensity of the firm is supposed to follow a CIR process. Two frameworks are discussed: first a constant interest rate and a secondly a multi-regime framework where the interest rate is augmented...