We investigate the dynamics of smoothing in the NCREIF index return using time-varying asset pricing models. We find that smoothing time-varies significantly. From the inception of the NCREIF index in 1978 until the early 1990s, there was little evidence of smoothing. Smoothing has increased...

We investigate the dynamics of appraisal smoothing in the NCREIF index return using time-varying asset pricing models. We find that smoothing is on average close to zero but varies substantially over time. From the inception of the NCREIF index in 1978 until the mid-1990s, there was little...

In this study, we propose a method based on large deviation theory (LDT), which minimises credit risk (expected loss). We demonstrate how mortgage loan portfolios can be optimised using geographical differences in the risk characteristics of mortgage loans in the UK. Our empirical results show...

We investigate if house prices are affected by overconfidence of households who predict house prices using imperfect public information about economic outlook. For this purpose, we develop a new measure of household overconfidence in the Bayesian framework. For the three variables we test –...

Yes. By observing return reversals following unexpected responses to noisy public signals about market-wide common factors, we show that investors in the US equity market tend to over-respond to public signals for mature firms that are relatively easy to price—old, large, and dividend-paying...