We expand on the standard commercial mortgage default model and create a new model by looking beyond the usual factors of option value, insolvency, property type, region, originator type, state foreclosure laws and macroeconomic measures. The new model incorporates measures of local economic...

Dieser Beitrag stellt verschiedene ökonometrische Methoden zur Bewertung und Berechnung von Kreditausfallrisiken vor und wendet diese auf einen aus Kreditakten von sechs deutschen Universalbanken zusammengestellten Datensatz an. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei (i) binäre bzw. geordnete Logit- und...

We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...

We study the potential model instability problem with respect to mortgage default risk and examine to what extent it helps explain the default shock during the recent crisis. We find that econometric default risk models based on historical data can be unstable over time. Due to temporal shifts...