patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over …. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a … inflation. …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

We analyze the relationship between M3 growth and inflation within an error correction framework including also the … inflation. Shocks in M3 growth account for up to 30% of the inflation forecast error variance, while the effects of output gap … the seventies and beginning of the eighties when interest rate and inflation rate levels were high and real money growth …

Using a common trends model, we estimate a forward-looking core inflation measure for the Euro area based on long …-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure … may be particularly suitable for the two-pillar monetary policy strategy of the ECB which focuses on medium-term inflation …

change of food commodity prices leads to a rise in euro area headline inflation (HICP) of around 0.3 percentage points after …

This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We … combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector … asymmetries and seasonal responses of inflation to temperature shocks, mainly via food, energy, and service prices. An increase in …

This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We … combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector Autore … asymmetries and seasonal responses of inflation to temperature shocks, mainly via food, energy, and service prices. An increase in …