In this paper, we present a forecasting technique that uses contemporaneous correlations for forecasting in a time series model when only a subset of the variables are available for the current period. This method potentially provides more accurate forecasts than the standard time series...

The purposes of this study are two: 1) to compare the forecasting abilities of the three methods: univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (MARIMA), and vector autoregression (both unconstrained — VAR — and Bayesian...

An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.

Using a panel data set of countries this paper shows that the inequality-growth relationship follows an ordinary-U curve during the period 1970-98, in which inequality first decreases and then increases with economic growth. In addition, there is some evidence that the increasing pattern may...

This comment discusses Harding and Pagan's (2007) article that advocates modeling the NBER business cycle chronology as the outcome of the two-quarter rule. The comment shows that the two-quarter rule does not fare well as a description of the decision-making of the NBER with real-time data...

Two recent strands of research have contributed to our understanding of the effects of foreign exchange intervention: 1) the use of high frequency data; 2) the use of event studies to evaluate the effects of intervention. This article surveys recent empirical studies of the effect of foreign...

This paper demonstrates two advantages of well-known block variants of standard algorithms for solving nonlinear systems. First, if a problem is suf­ficiently close to block-diagonal, block algorithms may offer significant speed advantages on a single processor. Second, block Jacobi algorithms...

Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic...