The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price...

This paper develops a new financial stress measure (Cleveland Financial Stress Index, CFSI) that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The index provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that...

This paper examines the evolution of alcoholic beverage sectors and the effects of tax policies on these sectors as well as the alcohol beverage demand systems in Japan utilising data from 1948 to 2011. In tax policy analyses, liquor tax policies are found to have differential effects on the...

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant...

Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data—containing revisions and released with a delay—overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over the business cycle and to perform policy analysis. We explain how to use DSGE models for all three purposes—forecasting, story telling, and...

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model...

This extension of the rational voter model differs from prior studies in three ways: its adoption of aggregate voting data; its use of data that are non-demographic in nature; and its use of data that are time series rather than cross section. The study finds that the aggregate voter participation...

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999–August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant...

For the most part, airports are publicly or semi-publicly owned and operated with fixed assets. As such, airports have been often considered little more than infrastructure providers for airlines. However, as airports have begun to offer a variety of ancillary services including passenger...