This paper presents a single, integrated model to explain the persistence and volatility characteristics of the U.S. inflation time series. Policymaker learning about a Markov-switching natural rate of unemployment in a neoclassical Phillips curve model with time-varying preferences produces...

Earlier studies have investigated the hollowing-out phenomenon of the Chicago economy, in which the manufacturing sectors in Chicago have decreased their intermediate dependency within the region while the service sectors have increased their dependency. In this paper, a series of annual...

This paper is an empirical test of the hypothesis suggested by Mazumdar (1996), namely, that the composition of trade determines the strength of the 'engine of growth'. Mazumdar suggested that, within the framework of the Solow model, the composition of trade affects the medium-run transition to...

The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest...

A presentation of multivariate time series forecasting in which the data consist of a mixture of quarterly and monthly series. In particular, a monthly series of M1 is used to forecast quarterly GNP.

The "ideal" band-pass filter can be used to isolate the component of a time series that lies within a particular band of frequencies, but applying this filter requires a data set of infinite length. In practice, some sort of approximation is needed. Using projections, the authors derive...

An examination of the small-sample properties of nonparametric changepoint tests using Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the probabilities of false-positive tests under alternative assumptions about the time-series properties of the underlying process. ; An analysis of whether depositor...

A calculation of the stochastic properties of consumption when income follows a fractional stochastic process, showing how this may explain excess-smoothness results noted in previous studies.