Purpose ? To develop an integrated approach to forecasting spot foreign exchange rates by incorporating some principles underlying long-term dependence.Design/methodology/approach ? The paper utilises the random-walk framework to develop a stochastic forecast model wherein the sign (positive or...

An important assumption underlying traditional theories of financial time-series behaviour is that consecutive changes in the price of an asset (ie. asset returns) are independent of each other. For analysts seeking to predict the future value of an asset, this implies that the best step-ahead...

This article presents an equivalence notion of finite order stochastic processes. Local dependence measures are defined in terms of joint and marginal densities. The dependence measures are classified topologically using level sets. The corresponding bifurcation theory is illustrated with some...

In many important textbooks the formal statement of the Spectral RepresentationTheorem is followed by a process version, usually informal, stating thatany stationary stochastic process g is the limit in quadratic mean of asequence of processes, each consisting of a finite sum of...

Suppose that the agents of a matching market contact each other randomly and form new pairs if is in their interest. Does such a process always converge to a stable matching if one exists? If so, how quickly? Are some stable matchings more likely to be obtained by this process than others? In...

There are estimates that up to 30% of hospital costs are due to inefficiently coordinated hospital processes. As a result many hospitals have tried to model and to reengineer their business processes. These efforts have very often been abandoned, because the normally constructed total models of...

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogrampattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present infinancial time series, particularly exchange rate and index data. The phenomena are related to...

The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important prediction of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a...

The process of international interest rate convergence for arbitrary terms (represented by the term structure of interest rate differentials) is derived in a model of a small open economy which faces a purely time-contingent exchange rate regime switch from flexible to fixed rates. Special...

Research in the area of stochastic models for actuarial use in South Africa is limited torelatively few publications. Until recently, there has been little focus on actuarialstochastic models that describe the empirical stochastic behaviour of South Africanfinancial and economic variables. A...