This paper focuses on dynamic financial modelling of recurring cash flow items in PPP projects in operating stage and on risks associated with the volatility of these cash flows. As we concentrate on so-called government-pays schemes, only cash-outflows are considered, such as operating costs,...

Despite its recent advent, value at risk (VaR) became the most widely usedtechnique for measuring future expected risk for both financial and non-financialinstitutions. VaR, the measure of the worst expected loss over a given horizon at a givenconfidence level, depends crucially on the...

This thesis focuses on increasing the efficiency of systems with cross-trained workforce and finite storage spaces. Our objective is to maximize the throughput and minimize the setup costs (if they exist). More specifically, we are interested in determining effective cross-training strategies...

This thesis is concerned with simulation output analysis. In particular, we are inter-ested in estimating the variance parameter of a steady-state output process. The estimationof the variance parameter has immediate applications in problems involving (i) the precisionof the sample mean as a...

Despite its recent advent, value at risk (VaR) became the most widely used technique for measuring future expected risk for both financial and non-financial institutions. VaR, the measure of the worst expected loss over a given horizon at a given confidence level, depends crucially on the...

Determnation of the structure of a medium from normal-incidenceacoustic reflection data is a basic problem in fieldsas diverse as medical technology and the earth sciences; thisresearch examines the accuracy with which quantitative structureestimates can be made from noise-corrupted...

Purpose ? To develop an integrated approach to forecasting spot foreign exchange rates by incorporating some principles underlying long-term dependence.Design/methodology/approach ? The paper utilises the random-walk framework to develop a stochastic forecast model wherein the sign (positive or...

An important assumption underlying traditional theories of financial time-series behaviour is that consecutive changes in the price of an asset (ie. asset returns) are independent of each other. For analysts seeking to predict the future value of an asset, this implies that the best step-ahead...

Pricing option contracts on electricity remains methodologically challenging, with a lack of clearly defined and robust methods. In particular, little is known about pricing options in Brazilian energy markets, despite their economic significance. Using weekly price data (R$/MWh) on four...

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the default probabilities in infrastructure projects. For that, we analyze the exposure of the lenders to a state of default. This application is made by assuming the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) dynamic itself and the payment profile determined by...