This paper examines the relationship between futures and spot prices for energy commodities. In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased predictor of subsequent spot prices and (2) whether futures prices are a good predictor of subsequent spot prices, in the crude oil,...

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while...

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while...

Many econometric analyses include dependent variables constrained to the interval between zero and 1 Under such conditions, simple regression procedures break down Several alternative stochastic models which avoid this problem can be defined depending on the assumed error structure Two...

Changes in real interest rates may affect the rate of adjustment of machinery to optimal levels This finding results from the development and application of a theoretically consistent analytical framework for examining agricultural investment 10 machinery Results from duality theory on...

Two approaches, a flexible accelerator model and a stochastic coefficients alternative, are used to estimate the structure of aggregate agricultural investment. Structural estimates of the adjustment rates for each model are similar. The stochastic coefficients model, however, performs better in...