This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results and the...

Uganda has had formal trade ties with Europe since 1973 when, together with several other commonwealth countries, it signed the Lomé Convention. However, trade relations between Europe and Africa started much earlier, in 1957, at first covering 18 francophone countries and six European...

This paper is a summary of some of the considerations involved in applying an existing model to a new problem, in particular in deciding whether to update or not, and some of the issues involved in interpreting the output from the new application. Thus where you start from does influence where...

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The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been a source of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers and merchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especially given that some market...

Recent spikes in commodity prices have led to higher margin amounts and option premiums. For the most part, producers have always attributed their lack of use in reducing risk via futures and options markets to the high cost associated with the use of these markets. This study determines the...

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders suggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders respond differently...