For over 40 years theorists have sought the effects of tax audits on voluntary compliance rates by studying individual taxpayer motivations. Yet no single theory has produced a taxpayer incentive model that both comports with experience and explains the effects of audits on compliance. This...

Compared with identification of monetary policy shocks, Identification of fiscal policies shocks are equally important, but there are insufficient in related research of China. Therefore, the paper chooses Sign Restriction to identify fiscal policies shocks of China. After we discuss...

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort...

In this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's statistical...

The Cyprus crisis is one of the most complex in the Eurozone - although in absolute terms it is a minor crisis. An analysis of the ongoing developments from different perspectives leads to the conclusion that we are witnessing a perfect storm of a financial crisis at the confluence of sovereign...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Several formal methods have been proposed to check identification in DSGE models via (i) the autocovariogram (Iskrev 2010), (ii) the spectral density (Komunjer and Ng 2011; Qu and Tkachenko 2012), or (iii) Bayesian indicators (Koop et al 2012). Even though all methods seem similar, there has been no...

This paper analyses the reaction of the minerals industry to external demand developments in South Africa. This is achieved by augmenting a Taylor1993 rule type central bank monetary policy reaction function with an indicator of external demand. The empirical results provide evidence of a...

In the long run, we are all dead. Nonetheless, when studying the short-run dynamics of economic models, it is crucial to consider boundary conditions that govern long-run, forward-looking behavior, such as transversality conditions. We demonstrate that machine learning (ML) can automatically...

This paper examines the empirical dynamics of countries' technological specialization in six technology fields using distribution dynamics, a methodology involving non-parametric estimation of probability distributions and Markov stochastic kernels for each field. Innovation in all the fields is...