Credit constrained firms prefer types of capital that generate significant pledgeable output and are liquid, since they loosen current and future credit constraints. Because pledgeability and liquidity are low for long-term firm-specific capital, a negative temporary aggregate productivity shock...

We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP, consumption, and investment. We find that auto stock returns are superior toaggregate stock market returns in predicting growth rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The...

Aggregate reallocation is procyclical. This empirical observation is puzzling given the documented fact that the benefits to reallocation are countercyclical. I show that this procyclicality is entirely driven by reallocation of bundled capital, which is highly correlated with market valuation...

Using a structural vector autoregression, we document that a contractionary monetary policy shock triggers a decline in durable and non-durable outputs as well as a contraction in bank equity and a rise in the excess bond premium. The latter points to an important transmission channel of...

Using a structural vector autoregression, we document that a contractionary monetary policy shock triggers a decline in durable and non-durable outputs as well as a contraction in bank equity and a rise in the excess bond premium. The latter points to an important transmission channel of...

We study the impact of the concentration and complexity of the banking sector on firms' financing and investment behavior over the business cycle. We find that, after the late 1990s, while debt issuance remained procyclical for US firms of all sizes, equity issuance and liquidity accumulation...

I study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which information on capital quality is asymmetric and the degree of information asymmetry varies endogenously with the state of the economy, amplifying the shocks. Firms hold capital and borrow to cover their operating expenses....

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and...

The price-rent ratio in commercial real estate is highly volatile, and its variation comoves with the business cycle. To account for these two facts, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly introduces a rental market and incorporates the liquidity constraint on an...