"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a twocountry, twogood business cycle...

Forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors’ ability to predict movements in the stock prices of the retailing chains. Therefore, this paper uses 26 (23 single and 3 combination) forecasting models to forecast South Africa’s aggregate seasonal retail sales. We use data...

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and...

El auge de los países asiáticos tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial se convirtió en un reto para la economía como disciplina y para las ciencias sociales en general. La trayectoria de Japón muestra que la tentativa de imitar el modelo de producción estadounidense se tropezó con las...

La presente investigación tiene por objetivo dilucidar la existencia, en el periodo de 1960 a 2011, de un ciclo político en la economía mexicana, que permita a los gobiernos en turno influir en variables económicas estratégicas durante los procesos electorales, incidir en la decisión de...

This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium model for explaining residential investment dynamics in the United States, focusing on the distinctive cyclical features of residential investment in that it leads the whole economy. This paper is different from the existing...

From an analysis of the uncertainties, deficiencies and negative effects of the present monetary system the necessity and the requirements for a new monetary order are derived. These requirements are fulfilled by the presented regulations of a monetary order, which is based on the proposals of...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...