The main purpose of the paper is to present, how derivatives valuing methodology, known from financial and commodities markets, can be applied to the electricity market. We compare an application of three recent models. We start with the convenience yield approach, then we analyse the...

CONTENTS: 1. Methodology; 2. Strategic Analysis (Foresight, SWOT); 3. Forecast for the Power Sector in Lower Silesia for the period 2010-2020; 4. Mission and Strategic Goals; 5. Action Programs.

In this paper, we analyze the influence of forward trading on the volatility of spot power prices, in models where forward contracts are strategic tools used by energy producers to obtain profit security. We define volatility as the variance of the percentage change in spot power prices over a...

The classical financial models are based on the standard Brownian diffusion-type processes. However, in exhibition of some real market data (like interest or exchange rates) we observe characteristic periods of constant values. Moreover, in the case of financial data, the assumption of normality...

The ruin probability in finite time can only be calculated analytically for a few special cases of the claim amount distribution. The most classic example is discussed in Section 1.2. The value can always be computed directly using Monte Carlo simulations, however, this is usually a...

This work discusses potential pitfalls of applying linear regression models to explaining the relationship between spot and futures prices in electricity markets. We briefly introduce the theory for the analysis of the spot-futures price relationship and highlight selected issues of multiple...

A simple Ising spin model which can describe a mechanism of making a decision in a closed community is proposed. It is shown via standard Monte Carlo simulations that very simple rules lead to rather complicated dynamics and to a power law in the decision time distribution. It is found that a...

In 2000 we proposed a sociophysics model of opinion formation, which was based on trade union maxim "United we Stand, Divided we Fall" (USDF) and latter due to Dietrich Stauffer became known as the Sznajd model (SM). The main difference between SM compared to voter or Ising-type models is that...

In last decades the rapid development of distributed generation can be observed. It is caused, among others, by legal circumstances, liberalization of the energy market and increasing demand of electrical energy. The presence of many various distributed generators in the power system is a big...

This paper presents methods for detecting the period of non Gaussian PC processes. A new statistic for testing periodic correlation is proposed. It is based on the bootstrap procedure which is used to estimate confidence intervals of coherence statistic. This method is linked to that of Hurd and...