We analyze the implied volatility surface structure of ODAX options as traded on DTB (currently Eurex). We apply PCA to cross sections of the implied volatility surface taken along the same moneyness (m) or the same time to maturity (T). For data from the period October 3rd 1997 – November...

A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, has two main components: one characterizing the frequency (or incidence) of events and another describing the severity (or size or amount) of gain or loss resulting from the occurrence of an event. Here we focus on...

Although combining forecasts is well-known to be an effective approach to improving forecast accuracy, the literature and case studies on combining load forecasts are very limited. In this paper, we investigate the performance of combining so-called sister load forecasts with eight methods:...

Market risks are the prospect of financial losses- or gains- due to unexpected changes in market prices and rates. Evaluating the exposure to such risks is nowadays of primary concern to risk managers in financial and non-financial institutions alike. Until late 1980s market risks were estimated...

This paper introduces the concept of sister models, and proposes a sister model based load forecast combination method to enhance the point forecasting accuracy. Using the data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014, we create a case study with 4 sister forecasts from 4 sister...

The classical approach to long term load forecasting is often limited to the use of load and weather information occurring with monthly or annual frequency. This low resolution, infrequent data can sometimes lead to inaccurate forecasts. Load forecasters often have a hard time explaining the...

Energy forecasting is one of those areas of great importance to electric grid that gets little attention - even from power industry insiders. But you need to know how to make the best of your forecasting process. Here are 13 tips to get you started.

When turning on the switch, people expect the light would be on. However, the business to keep the lights on is not that straightforward. This paper offers a practical overview of energy forecasting, an important task that electric utilities have been doing every day for over a century.

Electric load forecasting is a fundamental business process and well-established analytical problem in the utility industry. Due to various characteristics of electricity demand series and the business needs, electric load forecasting is a classical textbook example and popular application field...