Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want...

Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want...

This paper presents the framework employed by the Central Bank of Brazil for the projection of administered prices. Such framework is applied in the generation of short and medium term forecasts and combines econometric models with the “accounting” modeling based on expert analysis. The text...

This article presents a brief survey about core inflation and shows the first results obtained in the computation of such indicator for the Brazilian IPCA for the period from January/1996 to ay/2000. The performance of five alternative measures of core inflation (exclusion method, symmetric...

The objective of this paper is to verify if exploiting the large data set available to the Central Bank of Brazil, makes it possible to obtain forecast models that are serious competitors to models typically used by the monetary authorities for forecasting inflation. Some empirical issues such...