Short-term collateralized debt, private money, is efficient if agents are willing to lend without producing costly information about the collateral backing the debt. When the economy relies on such informationally insensitive debt, firms with low quality collateral can borrow, generating a...

There is growing evidence that fiscal consolidation may contribute to economic growth even in the short term. In this paper we review recent research on such non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects and apply panel data econometric techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the...

We investigate how changes in industries’ funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Panel regressions with 31 U.S. and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, using industries’ dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, show that higher funding costs...

This paper discusses the relationship between firms' access to credit market and business fluctuations in a sequential Neo-Austrian economy. Existence of cycles reflects a fundamental distortion in the intertemporal structure of production, that is a lack of coordination between utilization of...

We study the role of firm heterogeneity in affecting business cycle dynamics and optimal stabilization policy. Firms differ in their degree of cyclicality, and hence, exposure to aggregate risk, leading to firm-specific risk premia that influence resource allocations. The heterogeneous firm...

We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...

Both financial and macroeconomic conditions matter for downside risks to the economic outlook. In this paper, we show that the deterioration of the financial and real sides dramatically increase the probability of tail risks of large negative growth over the next year. We propose a real-time...

Big technological improvements in a new, secondary sector lead to a period of excitement about the future prospects of the overall economy, generating boom-bust dynamics that propagate through credit markets. Increased future capital prices relax collateral constraints today, leading to a boom...

We show that contrary to conventional wisdom, output growth did not always comove across sectors in recessions. After controlling for the size of recessions, sectoral comovement only rose during the Great Recession, which trade credit is key to explaining. In 2008, conditional on input trading,...

We quantify how banks' funding costs affect their lending behavior directly, and indirectly by feeding back to their net worth. For identification, we exploit banks' heterogeneous liability structure and the existence of regulated deposits in France whose rates are set by the government. Using...