In this paper we propose a method to derive the spectral representation in the case of a particular class of nonlinear models: Markov Switching ARMA models. The procedure simply relies on the application of the Riesz-Fisher Theorem which describes the spectral density as the Fourier transform of...

Many indicators of business and growth cycles have been constructed by both private and public agencies and are now in use as monitoring devices of economic conditions and for forecasting purposes. As these indicators are largely composite constructs using other economic data, their frequency...

This paper studies business cycle patterns in UK sectoral output. It analyzes the distinction between white noise processes and their non-white noise counterparts in the frequency domain and further examines the associated features and patterns for the process where white noise conditions are...

This paper examines international linkages of co-movements in output fluctuations amongst G7 economies in the frequency domain. The paper has identified patterns in international business cycle co-movements among the G7, offering a general outlook of international business cycle co-movements and...

In this paper, evidence is provided on the predictive ability of quarterly operating Cash Flows (CFs). The inability of creditors and investors to anticipate future CFs based on historical CFs, with any degree of accuracy, may suggest that historical forecasting models are underspecified....

Optimal control problem is considered: endogenous variables are to track some reference (targent) values. Uncertainty about future values of optimal targents may occur, so some pieces of information, about their characteristics may be very helpfu1. It will be shown, that certainty equivalence...

Recently, the Bank of Japan outlined a “two perspectives” approach to the conduct of monetary policy that focuses on risks to price stability over different time horizons. Interpreting this as pertaining to different frequency bands, we use band spectrum regression to study the determination...

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...