We study numerically Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin growth, modelling households, firms and government as interacting across real and financial markets. The model allows for sluggish wage / price adjustment, disequilibrium on the market for goods, equilibrium in asset markets and a dynamic government...

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation...

A factor to be taken into consideration in evaluating the social consequences of the financial crisis and subsequent recession is the long-period trend to be seen towards increasing social inequality. In the case of Italy the data reveal symptoms of the social gap appearing even before the...

The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts. First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession even though the VAR...

This paper documents three empirical facts. First, the volatility of consumption growth relative to income growth rose from 1947-1960 and then fell dramatically by 50 percent from the 1960s to the 1990s. Second, the correlation between consumption growth and personal income growth fell by about...

We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration...

Using the methodology developed in Stock and Watson (2002a), this paper proposes to exploit the information that contains the factor loading to identify the countries sharing common factors. The proposal is illustrated by analyzing the relation with the international reference-cycle of a large...

From the macroeconomist's viewpoint, agent based modelling has an obvious drawback: it makes impossible to think in aggregate terms. The modeller, in fact, can reconstruct aggregate variables only “from the bottom up” by summing the levels of a myriad of individual variables. We propose a...

The framework of mathematical dynamics of economic systems is applied to the development of financial crisis. A view is proposed that the severity of financial crises can be explained by means of superposition of the fluctuations on connected markets exhibited in the form of a resonance...