We consider a DSGE model with flexible prices, monopolistic competitive banks and sticky interest rates, together with endogenous firms exit and entry decisions. We find that economies characterized by endogenous firms dynamics imply higher volatilities of both real and financial variables than...

El auge de los países asiáticos tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial se convirtió en un reto para la economía como disciplina y para las ciencias sociales en general. La trayectoria de Japón muestra que la tentativa de imitar el modelo de producción estadounidense se tropezó con las...

La presente investigación tiene por objetivo dilucidar la existencia, en el periodo de 1960 a 2011, de un ciclo político en la economía mexicana, que permita a los gobiernos en turno influir en variables económicas estratégicas durante los procesos electorales, incidir en la decisión de...

This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium model for explaining residential investment dynamics in the United States, focusing on the distinctive cyclical features of residential investment in that it leads the whole economy. This paper is different from the existing...

From an analysis of the uncertainties, deficiencies and negative effects of the present monetary system the necessity and the requirements for a new monetary order are derived. These requirements are fulfilled by the presented regulations of a monetary order, which is based on the proposals of...

To end a financial crisis, the central bank is to lend freely, against good collateral, at a high rate, according to Bagehot’s Rule. We argue that in theory and in practice there is a missing ingredient to Bagehot’s Rule: secrecy. Re-creating confidence requires that the central bank lend in...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...

Using Bayesian methods, I estimate a DSGE model where a recession is initiated by losses suffered by banks and exacerbated by their inability to extend credit to the real sector. The event triggering the recession has the workings of a redistribution shock: a small sector of the economy --...

Many countries have large employment shares in micro and small firms that have limited access to formal financing and therefore rely on input credit. Such countries are mainly emerging and developing economies, whose business cycle dynamics are increasingly important for the global economy in...