This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP in South Africa grew by 5 percent in 2006 and continued to grow vigorously in early 2007. Growth was driven by strong domestic demand, with private consumption and investment spending supported by continuing robust consumer and business...

Portugal’s 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Portugal’s financial system remains sound and well supervised. Portugal has accumulated substantial macroeconomic imbalances, and the policy challenge is to smooth the adjustment, containing domestic demand while increasing...

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...

The recent round of debt relief has restored debt sustainability in many low-income countries (LICs). This, along with a continued search for yield and desire for portfolio diversification by investors, has increased the range of viable financing options, including international bonds, for many...

In recent years financial globalization and benign global market conditions have helped emerging markets in their external financing and budgetary positions. This paper examines three related issues: (i) the importance of the impact of the benign financial environment on fiscal performance; (ii)...

A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market...

In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines...

We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory...

This paper discusses the Arrangement for Mexico Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The recent upward trend in output in Mexico is expected to continue, leading to projected growth of 4 percent for 2010. Financial inflows are projected to gradually...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Estonia is now experiencing its most severe recession since the early 1990s. The financial sector has withstood the global financial turbulence well so far, but risks remain significant. Executive Directors have commended the...