We develop a theory of political transitions inspired by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening revolution, especially when the opportunity cost is low, for...

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an...

We analyze property crime in an endowment economy composed of a large number of heterogeneous individuals who need to protect themselves, choose whether to participate in crime or not, and decide on how to allocate their predation efforts across victims. The equilibrium posits perfect foresight...

We examine how group-specific differences in reservation wage, arising due to asymmetries in social entitlements, impact on distribution via the joint determination of class conflict between workers and employers, and ‘ethnic’ conflict among workers. We model a two-dimensional contest, where...

This study is the first to explore the short-run impact of armed conflict on firms’ performance and their perceptions of the business environment. We focus on the August 2008 conflict between Georgia and Russia and use the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey data before and...

This paper examines the individual incentives to identify to one's ethnic group rather than to the nation, based on large sample surveys representative of seven capitals of West-African countries. Three main driving forces stand out. First, we show that education brings down ethnic salience at...

This paper examines the individual determinants of ethnic identication using large sample surveys (about 30,000 respondents) representative of seven capitals of West-African countries. A small model that relates ethnic identication to an investment in ethnic capital suggests that individuals...

This paper analyzes data from a survey of ex-combatants in Liberia conducted in 2006 by Pugel (2006. 2007), with the goal of determining the effect that Liberia’s Demobilization, Disarmament, Rehabilitation and Reintegration program had on participants’ income and chances of finding...

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth...