We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We ex- tend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents' decisions...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock's return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall...

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. The intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For...

The design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations. Instead, we examine the dynamic consequences of implementation strategies, when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity. Agents have either rational or...

We examine empirically whether asset prices and exchange rates may be admitted into a standard interest rate rule, using data for the US, the UK and Japan since 1979. Asset prices and exchange rates can be employed as information variables for a standard ‘Taylor-type’ rule or as...

With the aim of constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model where fiscal policy can operate as a demand management tool, we develop a framework which combines staggered prices and overlapping generations based on uncertain lifetimes. Price stickiness plus lack of Ricardian Equivalence could...

We provide a microfounded account of imperfect information in the stochastic growth model which dramatically changes the properties of the model. We describe heterogenous households that acquire information about aggregates through their participation in markets. If markets are incomplete,...

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. If the errors...

This paper presents a general approximation method for characterizing timevarying equilibrium portfolios in a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The method can be easily adapted to most dynamic general equilibrium models, it applies to environments in which markets are complete or...