There has recently been widespread public debate and media attention around housing affordability. This paper discusses the concept of affordability as it applies to housing, examines the approaches used to measure affordability, and then documents the aggregate evidence for New Zealand over the...

We estimate that the total costs of crime in New Zealand in 2003/04 amounted to $9.1 billion. Of this, the private sector incurred $7 billion in costs and the public sector $2.1 billion. Offences against private property are the most common crimes but offences against the person are the most...

In 2001, Statistics New Zealand conducted a major survey of the assets and liabilities of New Zealanders called the Household Savings Survey (HSS). This paper presents the results of an analysis of ownership and investment in housing based on the results of that survey. International comparisons...

This paper looks at the importance of the terms of trade for the New Zealand economy by examining the impact of changes in the trend and volatility of the terms of trade on economic growth. It is found that the volatility in the terms of trade has had a negative impact on New Zealand's economic...

Work on assessing Treasury's forecasting performance to date has focussed on comparisons against consensus forecasts. This study compares Treasury's GDP and CPI forecast performance against individual private sector forecasters as well as major public sector institutions such as the IMF, OECD...

New Zealand's unrelenting current account deficits, its trade performance and high external debt level remain central to ongoing economic policy debates. However, what has been overlooked in the discussion of New Zealand's economic relations with its trading partners is the positive contribution...

In recent years, the total debt of the household sector has risen appreciably. This has led to concerns about "excessive" borrowing, and to the possibility that some households may have become unduly vulnerable in the event of unexpected shocks. This paper draws on both aggregate and household...

Reliable estimates of actual household saving rates in New Zealand have proved elusive as existing sources of data have in the past given disparate estimates, making it difficult to reach a consensus of the real rate of household saving. For the first time in New Zealand, however, longitudinal...

The housing market is both large and complex. This paper develops a simple model that captures the essential features of the supply and demand for housing, and which is used to evaluate the impact of a range of policy interventions. Increases in the stock of housing would reduce rents and house...

This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand's Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends...