Since the 1997-98 financial crisis, many East Asian economies have experienced permanent declines of domestic investment and output growth, mainly resulting from the increase in financial risk and decrease in the return on investment. The investment decline in East Asia, outside of China,...

The notion of "convergence" of economic variables across countries is a useful concept and in the case of income per capita, a well studied area. If there is empirical evidence of convergence of some economic variables across countries, then our ability to prdict the future (or at least...

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of the current and projected future demographic change that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It...

This paper is a revised version of a paper that was originally presented to the Asian Economic Panel meeting held in Tokyo, May 11-12, 2003 and the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) Finance forum, Hua Hin, Thailand, July 8-9, 2003. We have updated that original paper to include the...

The Bogor Declaration of 1994 proposed free trade in the Asia Pacific region by the year 2020. If implemented as announced, this program will have important implications for the world economy over the next few decades. This paper uses a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the...

This paper explores the failure of countries to coordinate climate policies as an equilibrium outcome of a game where countries optimize in the face of both unprecedented economic and environmental uncertainty. Because issues associated with climate change are historically unprecedented and thus...

Economic growth projections are fundamental to long term investment planning by businesses and government. There is an extensive and well developed literature concerned with methodologies for projecting economic growth over short time horizons, but over long horizons, where the goal is to...

While the global environment waits for the world to reach some form of agreement on climate policy, developing countries such as India are entering a phase of higher economic growth. The decisions on investment in energy systems that will be made in India in coming years will have an important...