This study compares the performance of Prospect Theory versus Stochastic Expected Utility Theory at fitting data on decision making under risk. Both theories incorporate well-known deviations from Expected Utility Maximization such as the Allais paradox or the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes....

Paying an insurance premium but not needing to claim is sometimes viewed as pouring money down the drain. Aversion to the perceived waste may lead to the rejection of fair insurance. Although policies paying rebates if no claim is made are not attractive to expected utility maximisers, this...

We find, in a sample of 7581 merger offer announcements from 1990 to 2013, shareholders of 1283 (or 17%) target firms responded to the offer with negative market returns. These investors were disappointed at the offer, despite the price premium. To explain their disappointment, one must...

In their 1979 article, Kahneman and Tversky introduced the world to the prospect theory of decision-making under risk as a critique of expected utility theory and its emphasis on final assets. Critics have noted that despite successful replications, its application outside the experimental arena...

Why and how do political actors pursue risky welfare state reforms, in spite of the institutional mechanisms and political resistance that counteract change? This is one of the key puzzles of contemporary welfare state research, which is brought about by the absence of a complete account that...

This study uses a unique data set and valuation method to quantify returns to teams in baseball’s high-stakes, high-risk amateur draft. Thanks to teams’ monopsony power over draftees and low-seniority players, payoffs on successful picks far outweigh losses on unsuccessful ones:...

Financial well-being is distinct from income. Some people with high incomes suffer low financial well-being, as their incomes fall short of their aspirations. Such people feel propelled to reach their aspirations by taking risk and willing to bear losses. Conversely, some people with low incomes...

When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner’s curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the...

The paper reports the result of an experimental game on asset integration and risk taking. We find evidence that winnings in earlier rounds affect risk taking in subsequent rounds, but no evidence that real life wealth outside the experiment affects risk taking. We find some evidence of...

There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households’ utility...