We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S.,...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow...

We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...

Latin American economies are exposed to substantial external vulnerability. Domestic imbalances and terms of trade shocks are often exacerbated by sudden stops of capital inflow. In this paper we explore ways of overcoming external vulnerability, drawing lessons from a detailed comparison of the...

This paper assesses the policies implemented in the Peruvian economy in response to the sudden stop of capital flows of the end of the nineties. The Peruvian experience during this episode is an interesting case-study because it offers an example of a highly dollarized economy where a sudden...

The nature of the microeconomic frictions that transform sudden stops into output collapses is not only of academic interest, but also crucial for the correct design of policy responses intended to prevent and address these episodes. This paper uses industry-level data in a sample of 45...

We live in a new world economy characterized by financial globalization and historically low interest rates. This paper presents a simple analytical framework that helps us understand how this new world economy works from the perspective of an emerging economy. Financial globalization gives rise...

We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...

Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present...

This paper applies GMMestimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic...