Was the episode of high inflation in the Philippines in 2022 driven primarily by supply or demand factors? How did the relative contributions of supply and demand evolve over time? This study adopts the methodology proposed by Shapiro (2022) and Shapiro (2023) to disaggregate Philippine...

We solve a canonical, estimated, medium-sized, open-economy New Keynesian model, cast it into a small-scale population vector autoregression, and assess whether best-practice structural identifications detect textbook "overshooting" after a monetary policy hike-i.e., an instant real appreciation...

Dynamic rational inattention problems used to be difficult to solve. This paper provides simple, analytical results for dynamic rational inattention problems. We start from the benchmark rational inattention problem. An agent tracks a variable of interest that follows a Gaussian process. The...

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...

In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent quantity during estimation. Only a limited number of...

The paper reviews adjustment dynamics in the EMU on the basis of estimated DSGE models for four large EA Member States (DE, FR, IT, ES). We compare the response of the four countries to identical shocks and find a particularly strong response of employment and wages in ES, a high sensitivity of...

Was the episode of high inflation in the Philippines in 2022 driven primarily by supply or demand factors? How did the relative contributions of supply and demand evolve over time? This study adopts the methodology proposed by Shapiro (2022) and Shapiro (2023) to disaggregate Philippine...