We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information...

In this paper we feature state-of-the-art econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for univariate linear time series, namely ARIMA-GARCH models. We present a unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes and we explain in detail, although...