In this paper we study the power of direct tests for rational expectations against the constant gain learning alternative. The investigation is by means of a Monte Carlo study. The tests considered use quantitative expectations data and qualitative survey data that has been quantified. The main...

This paper examines the government spending multiplier when economic agents form their expectations based on an adaptive learning scheme. The learning mechanism is such that the agents forecast future values of forward-looking variables using a linear function of an information set that does not...

Abstract: This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents produce heterogeneous expectations due to model uncertainty, informational frictions and different capacities for processing information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this...

We study the extent to which self-referential adaptive learning can explain stylized asset pricing facts in a general equilibrium framework. In particular, we analyze the effects of recursive least squares and constant gain algorithms in a production economy and a Lucas type endowment economy....

This Paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in the face of aggregate shocks. The payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on their...

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

This discussion paper led to an article in 'Journal of Economic Theory' (2014). Volume 150, pp. 778-814.<P> We propose behavioral learning equilibria as a plausible explanation of coordination of individual expectations and aggregate phenomena such as excess volatility in stock prices and high...</p>

We analyze the classical asset pricing model assuming non fully rational agents. Agents forecast future prices cum dividend through an adaptive learning rule. This assumption provides an explanation of some anomalies encountered in the empirical analysis of asset prices under full rationality:...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a...