This paper analyzes coalition formation in a model of contests with linear costs. Agents first form groups and then compete by investing resources. Coalitions fight for prizes that are assumed to be subject to rivalry, so their value is non-increasing in the size of the group. This formulation...

This paper explores the role of conflict as a bargaining tool. It first presents a simple bargaining model with one-sided incomplete information. Parties can choose the scope of the confrontation they may want to engage in: A limited conflict that only introduces delay, or an absolute conflict...

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, 'diffuse' priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected...

Monotone ratio orderings are refinements of first order stochastic dominance that allow monotone comparative statics results in games of incomplete information. We develop analogous refinements for second order stochastic dominance based on the monotonicity of the cumulative probability ratio...

This paper proposes a simple testing procedure to distinguish a unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. Following the threshold cointegration literature we assume that the process follows the random walk in the corridor regime,...

The paper develops a general framework for identification, estimation, and hypothesis testing in cointegrated systems when the cointegrating coefficients are subject to (possibly) non-linear and cross-equation restrictions, obtained from economic theory or other relevant a priori information. It...

In this paper we propose a direct testing procedure to detect the presence of linear unit root against geometrically ergodic process defined by self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model with three regimes. Assuming that the process follows the random walk in the corridor regime, the...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...