Ce papier analyse l'option réelle avec barrière inférieure. C'est le modèle d'un investissement irréversible soumis au risque de perdre l'option d'investir si on attend trop. La valeur critique pour investir décroit lorsque la barrière se rapproche, ou lorsque la volatilité augmente....

This paper examines the economic rationale behind both the quantitative targets and the flexibility mechanisms adopted in the Kyoto Protocol. It synthesises some theoretical dimensions of the debate about the so-called "when flexibility" of climate policies, explaining the importance of the...

This paper reviews evidence that energy technologies and systems adapt over time to accomodate external pressures: that technical innovation and systemic change in the energy sector is largely induced by need, and restrained by potentially large transitional costs. A simple integrated model of...

This paper provides an introduction to the mathematical theory of possibility, and examines how this tool can contribute to the analysis of far distant futures. The degree of mathematical possibility of a future is a number between O and 1. It quantifies the extend to which a future event is...

Des progrès importants ont été réalisés cette dernière décennie dans la compréhension du changement climatique et de ses remèdes.L'hypothèse centrale pour le futur est un réchauffement global del'ordre de 2°C en 2100, avec une concentration de dioxide de carbone dépassant 550 ppmv....

We define a hierarchical method for expert opinion aggregation that combines consonant beliefs in the Transferable Belief Model. Experts are grouped into schools of thought, then opinions are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator within groups and the non-interactive disjunction...

The METSTOR project offers a methodology to look for potentially interesting CO2 storage areas in France at the initial stage, before the "site selection" step. Our tool, embodied in a Geographic Information System, is based on an interactive map of CO2 storage capacities. Other relevant...

A bottom-up Integrated Resource Planning model is used to examine the economic potential of renewable energy in Vietnam's power sector. In a baseline scenario without renewables, coal provides 44% of electricity generated from 2010 to 2030. The use of renewables could reduce that figure to 39%,...

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit...

Leakage is one of the main concerns of all parties involved with the development of Carbon Capture and Storage. From an economic point of view, Van der Zwaan and Gerlagh (2009) suggest that CCS remains a valuable option even with CO2 leakage rate as high as of a few % per year. But what is...