The estimation of inflation volatility is important to Central Banks as it guides their policy initiatives for achieving and maintaining price stability. This paper employs three models from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a...

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation...

We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank's Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...

We investigate whether fluctuations in U.S. inflation rates are better described by infrequently occurring large shocks or by frequently occurring small shocks. We estimate a model that encompasses the two hypotheses within the framework of non-Gaussian state-space models. Our results indicate...

Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, a number of Asian central banks adopted inflation targeting. While it is possible for the average inflation rate to be close to target, deviations of inflation could nevertheless be large and protracted. We therefore explore how successful this...

This paper considers the application of long memory processes to describe inflation with seasonal behaviour. We use three different long memory models taking into account the seasonal pattern in the data. Namely, the ARFIMA model with deterministic seasonality, the ARFISMA model, and the...

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model...

The difficulty in modelling inflation and the significance in discovering the underlying data generating process of inflation is expressed in an ample literature regarding inflation forecasting. In this paper we evaluate nonlinear machine learning and econometric methodologies in forecasting the...

This study empirically documents that inflation is significantly more persistent when it is below the central bank target than otherwise, for inflation rates in five inflation targeting countries (Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, United States and the Euro- Area). The study uses a threshold...