In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978- 31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their...

In this paper we apply three different statistical procedures to the peseta/dollar exchange rate with the objective of discovering the true foreign exchange regime followed by the monetary authorities during the 1965-1998 period. The study´s perspective emphasizes the divergence between de jure...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

This paper test for causality between the US Dollar-Euro exchange rate and US-EMU bond yield differentials. To that end, we apply Hsiao (1981)’s sequential procedure to daily data covering the 1999-2011 period. Our results suggest the existence of statistically significant Granger causality...

This paper explores the evolving relationship in the volatility of sovereign yields in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). To that end, we examine the behaviour for daily yields for 11 EMU countries (EMU-11), during the 2001-2010 period. In a first step, we decompose volatility in...

We develop a genetic algorithm that is able to find the optimal sequence of exchange rates that maximizes arbitrage profits with more than three currencies, being both the triangular arbitrage and the direct exchange rate two special cases of the proposed algorithm. Applying the algorithm to the...

Based on a dataset of 123 economies, both developed and developing countries, this paper investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and inflation performance. Our results suggest that those countries with flexible exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher inflation rates,...

Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates....

This paper investigates the convergence in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute...