The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions,and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle optionsmarkets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor ofrealized...

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasingfeed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude ofsustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particularthose with...

Taken together, studies that examine how well commodity futures marketsperform find that risk premiums are common—and so unbiasedness is not—and marketsare not uniformly efficient across commodities or forecast horizons. This large body ofresearch sheds important light on whether and to what...

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...

Since the United States imposed antidumping and countervailing duties totaling 14.16 percent on imports of Canadian hard red spring (HRS) wheat, Canadian exports to the United States have nearly stopped. This study examines the impact of the decreased HRS wheat imports from Canada on U.S. wheat...

Includes cover page, journal info, contents page, and editorial information

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/10/10.

In spite of vast expanses of the country’s land currently being uncultivated, there is increasing evidence that a surprisingly high share of rural smallholder households face land constraints that adversely affect their productivity and ability to participate in agricultural supply chains.

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