We scrutinize China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand for the presence of rational bubbles by employing several tests on a large dataset that includes three bubble episodes. We also convert most tests into recursive to overcome structural...

Trailing stop is a popular stop-loss trading strategy by which the investor will sell the asset once its price experiences a pre-specified percentage drawdown. In this paper, we study the problem of timing to buy and then sell an asset subject to a trailing stop. Under a general linear diffusion...

We study several optimal stopping problems that arise from trading a mean-reverting price spread over a finite horizon. Modeling the spread by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we analyze three different trading strategies: (i) the long-short strategy; (ii) the short-long strategy, and (iii) the...

This paper studies the optimal risk-averse timing to sell a risky asset. The investor's risk preference is described by the exponential, power, or log utility. Two stochastic models are considered for the asset price – the geometric Brownian motion and exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models –...

In this paper we examine the relative importance of trading volume, bid-ask spread, order flow, order imbalance, total quote depth, quote depth difference and trading intensity for high-frequency volatility estimation. By using a best subset regression approach, we fi nd that contemporaneous...

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, credit migration matrices, used in many credit risk and pricing applications, are typically assumed to be generated by a simple Markov process. Based on empirical evidence we propose a parsimonious model that is a mixture of (two) Markov chains, where...

We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures whose underlying asset price follows a multiscale central tendency Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (MCTOU) model. Under this model, we derive the closed-form no-arbitrage prices for the futures contracts. Applying a utility maximization approach,...

In this paper, we attempt to assess the potential importance of different types of traders (i.e., those with public and private information) in financial markets using a specification of the standardized duration. This approach allows us to test unobserved heterogeneity in a nonlinear version...

This paper analyzes the problem of starting and stopping a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process with fixed costs. In addition, we also study a related optimal switching problem that involves an infinite sequence of starts and stops. We establish the conditions under which the starting-stopping and...

This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when prices are driven by an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck...