This paper proposes a new method to estimate parameters, natural rates, and business cycles of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models simultaneously and consistently. It is based on the Monte Carlo particle filter and a self-organizing state space model. In our method, we estimate the...

This paper proposes a new method to estimate parameters of dynamic general equilibrium models under a liquidity trap based on the Monte Carlo particle filter, proposed by Kitagawa (1996) and Gordon et al. (1993), and a self-organizing state space model, proposed by Kitagawa (1998). This method...

The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April...

This paper examines the factors that lie behind the couples' declining number of children and desire for children, associating among living environment, economic situation, and husband and wife’s consciousness and sense of value. Data for this paper was compiled through a web-based...

Being healthy is one of the most important factors that affect the degree of human happiness. In an aging society, deaths due to cancer tend to increase. When considering the improvement of wealth of the aging society in Southeast Asia, the international transfer of Japanese R&D results and...

Less and late marriage and declining fertility of married couples are considered to be factors behind Japanese falling birth rate. The change in couple’s reproductive behavior is possibly related to couples’ economic and living situation including employment status of wives, educational...

This paper examines the association among employment status and attitudes to marriage, family and job focusing on non-regular employees. Data for this paper was compiled through a web-based questionnaire survey, conducted in September and October 2011. Chapter 1 introduces results of the survey;...

The future of Japanese society is going to depend on two trends: the rapid aging of our citizens, which is unprecedented in human history, and something called “individual editorial control”. These trends—like them or not—have permeated deeply into Japan. We need to develop innovative...

Directional analysis is employed to evaluate the rationality and usefulness of a data set of monthly forecasts for the coincident index in ESRI's Indexes of Business Conditions by professional forecasters.　Using Japanese　ESP Forecast Survey data, our findings indicate that consensus...

Taking advantage of annual panel data on farm households collected by the Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, this paper investigates whether a retirement consumption puzzle can be observed in Japan and, given that this is the case, what the reasons are. Our long-run panel data...