We build an information-based two-country general equilibrium model. There are two dividend processes with correlated growth rates. Agents observe a global public signal informative about both growth rates. We first let agents rationally process information, and then we allow for reasonable...

Global supply chains enhance value, but are subject to governance problems and encourage evasive practices that deter sustainability, especially in developing countries. This article proposes that the precontractual environment, where parties are interested in trade but have not yet negotiated...

We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong...