How accurate are people when predicting whether they will vote? These self-predictions are used by political scientists to proxy for political motivation, and by public opinion researcher to predict election outcomes. Phone surveys from three elections, including one survey experiment, are...

There is an urgent need to create a new generation of innovation-oriented agricultural that efficiently bring together agricultural research, training, commercialization, and extension. This paper calls for upgrading the training, extension, and commercialization functions of existing national...

The past thirty years have seen a dramatic decrease in the rate of income convergence across U.S. states. This decline coincides with a similarly substantial decrease in population flows to wealthy states. We develop a model where labor mobility plays a central role in convergence and can...

This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or infeasible. This article instead argues that the goal of...

In 1791 Alexander Hamilton submitted as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury a now-famous Report on the Subject of Manufactures. In it he criticized arguments that the U.S. colonies should remain preponderantly agricultural. He does not name the "respectable patrons of opinions" whose views he was...

Do legislators learn to use new communication technologies from each other? Using data from the official homepages of members of the U.S. House of Representatives, we test whether web-based communication technology diffuses through congressional state delegations. We use a natural experimental...

What do Americans think about the US role in world affairs and why do they think the way they do? Americans typically do not think about foreign policy most of the time, and, as a consequence, know relatively little about it (Almond 1950, Lippmann 1955, Converse 1964, Erskine 1963, Edwards 1983,...

Interest in deliberative theories of democracy has grown tremendously among political theorists over the last twenty years. Many scholars in political behavior, however, are skeptical that it is a practically viable theory, even on its own terms. They argue (inter alia) that most people dislike...

The current banking crisis highlights the challenges faced in the traditional lending model, particularly in terms of screening smaller borrowers. The recent growth in online peer-to-peer lending marketplaces offers opportunities to examine different lending models that rely on screening by...

Evaluations of educational programs commonly assume that what children learn persists over time. The authors compare learning in Pakistani public and private schools using dynamic panel methods that account for three key empirical challenges to widely used value-added models: imperfect...