The paper presents the first version of Latvia's Macroeconomic Model (LMM) built using the features and structure of an Area-Wide Model (AWM) for the euro area and Multi-Country Model (MCM) for a typical country block of the European System of Central Banks. This is one of the first attempts to...

At any stage of an economic cycle, policy makers and production managers are to make decisions how to benefit from an economic upswing most, or how to mitigate the adverse effects of an economic downturn. An early evaluation of economic development trends in a country will lead to a more...

The paper sets a goal to assess the significance of production progress and human capital for the Latvian economy and to estimate long-term growth rates of the country's economic development. The authors made an attempt to construct a production function using non-linear modelling. In order to...

During the last decade Latvia made a considerable progress and has created an institutional structure and legislative framework to support a market-oriented financial system. The financial sector of Latvia comprises nearly all financial institutions typical of developed markets. The regulatory...

To determine whether economic progress of a country presents a threat to its macroeconomic sustainability, the difference between actual and potential output is usually used in the formulation of the economic policy. A number of methodologies, including the time series method, HP filter approach...

The current paper aims at estimating the formation mechanism of business inflation expectations to find out how the latter affect the inflation dynamics. To attain this goal, the authors estimated the traditional Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve. The results...

This paper examines applicability of various models of the yield curve construction to the Latvian money and government securities markets, and analyses the information content implied in the yield curve. The rejection of hypothesis about the existence of a zero risk premium leads to an...

The analysis of the exchange rate in Latvia presented in this publication covers the period from 1994 until 2001. The analysis has been based on two commonly used methods: the single equation approach and macroeconomic balance approach. The existing fundamental variables in the economy warrant...

The paper examines the exchange rate pass-through in a set of 13 East European countries during the period of 1993–2003. The pass-through estimates are derived from a recursive VAR model in first differences, and the impact of exchange rate changes on both producer and consumer prices is...

Inflation and its dynamics are among the most important indicators in the focus of such economic agents as producers, consumers, investors, and monetary and fiscal policy makers. Risks of high inflation or deflation enhance the need to profoundly investigate factors and causes that could...