We examine whether finance professionals deviate from Bayes’ theorem on the processing of nondiagnostic information when forecasting quarterly earnings. Using field data from sell-side financial analysts and employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that analysts whose forecasts...

Consistent with outcome bias, we replicate the finding of Lefgren et al. (2015) showing that professional basketball coaches in the NBA discontinuously change their starting lineup more often after narrow losses than after narrow wins, even though this outcome is conditionally uninformative. As...

Superstars in European football are exceptionally talented and enjoy celebrity status. While second-tier stars, i.e., players barely below superstar status, lack popularity, their marginal contribution to team performance on the pitch relative to that of superstars is unknown. Relying on...