The aim of this paper is to determine whether risk variables in particular interest rate and exchange rate play any important role in predicting sector price indices in the stock market. The stock market indices used include All-share index, banking index, insurance index, food and beverage...

The short term and long term stock price volatility changes around bonus and rights issue announcements have been examined using historical volatility estimation and time varying volatility approach. The results show that the historical volatility has increased after bonus and rights issue...

The present study applies three time series models, namely, Grey-Markov model, Grey-Model with rolling mechanism, and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to forecast the consumption of conventional energy in India. Grey-Markov model has been employed to forecast crude-petroleum consumption while...

The grey model GM(1,1), which is based on grey system theory, has become a powerful tool for the prediction problems in power systems. However, the prediction accuracy of grey model is unsatisfying when original data set shows great randomness. In this paper, in order to improve the prediction...

Energy demand forecasting is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors and other related corporations. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. One of the forecasting techniques which has proved...

China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is...

In this study, I investigate the necessary condition for consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of spatial models with a spatial moving average process in the disturbance term. I show that the MLE of spatial autoregressive and spatial moving average parameters is generally...

The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, designed to model volatility clustering, exhibits heavy-tailedness regardless of the distribution of its innovation term. When applying the model to financial time series, the distribution of innovations plays an...

This paper analyzes the approximation of a general long-memory ARFIMA (p,d,q) process by a short-memory ARMA(1, 1) process. To validate this approximation, a mean square error forecast criterion is considered, and the calculation of the mean square error between the observation Xt+l of an ARFIMA...

This study investigates the Chinese Lunar New Year (CLNY) holiday effect in major Asian stock markets. These are China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan. For robustness test, India is also examined in this paper. Daily stock index returns for each market are analysed for the...