We examine the effects of parameter uncertainty and Bayesian learning on equilibrium asset prices when all the structural parameters of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rate processes are unknown. With realistic calibration of a parsimonious set of prior parameters, the model...

We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce valuation uncertainty among market participants. The analysis is based on a unique dataset of price estimates for S&P 500 index options that major...

Price bubbles remain a puzzle for economic theory, particularly given their appearance in experimental markets with high efficiency and minimized uncertainty and noise. We propose that bubbles are caused by the institutionalization of social norms, when individuals observe and adopt the behavior...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the ability of consensus prices to reduce valuation uncertainty in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives. The analysis is based on a proprietary data set of price estimates for S&P500 index options provided by major broker-dealers to a...

Intuition and leading equilibrium models are at odds with the empirical evidence that expected returns are barely related to volatility at the market level. This paper proposes a closed-form general equilibrium model, which connects the investors' expectations of fundamentals with those of...

Intuition and leading equilibrium models are at odds with the empirical evidence that expected returns are barely related to volatility at the market level. This paper proposes a closed-form general equilibrium model, which connects the investors' expectations of fundamentals with those of...

We consider a market economy where two rational agents are able to learn the distribution of future events. In this context, we study whether moving away from the standard Bayesian belief updating, in the sense of under-reaction to some degree to new information, may be strategically convenient...

This paper exploits hand-collected data on illegal insider trades to provide new evidence of the ability of standard measures of illiquidity to detect informed trading. Controlling for unobserved cross-sectional and time-series variation, sampling bias, and strategic timing of insider trades, I...

I show that a simple asset pricing equilibrium model can explain many salient features of index option prices if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. A representative investor holds subjective beliefs about the underlying asset returns, which he optimally learns from past...

With imperfect price interpretation, quantitative investing — trading strategies based on the information extraction from quantitative analysis of price — can affect price informativeness through two distinct economic mechanisms. Directly, it brings more informed capital with superior price...