This paper compares various models for time series of counts which can account for discreetness, overdispersion and serial correlation. Besides observation- and parameter-driven models based upon corresponding conditional Poisson distributions, we also consider a dynamic ordered probit model as...

Simulations of agent-based models have shown that the stylized facts (unit-root, fat tails and volatility clustering) of financial markets have a possible explanation in the interactions among agents. However, the complexity, originating from the presence of non-linearity and interactions, often...

This paper develops a model of the WTO dispute settlement process (DSP) to study the recent proposal by legal scholars to subsidize litigation costs. The high cost of litigation, so the argument, is a major obstacle for developing countries to using the DSP to enforce developed countries?...

In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex?ante forecasting performance for...

We employ German Sample Survey Income data to examine income inequality and the financial situation of elderly citizens for the period from 1978 to 2003, focussing on differences between retired and non-retired elderly and between elderly with residence in the Old and the New German Laender....

In this paper Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) is used to perform a classical and Bayesian analysis of univariate and multivariate Stochastic Volatility (SV) models for financial return series. EIS provides a highly generic and very accurate procedure for the Monte Carlo (MC) evaluation of...

In this paper, we consider daily financial data of a collection of different stock market indices, exchange rates, and interest rates, and we analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating a simple specification of the Markov- switching multifractal model (MSM). In order to see how well...

We develop a model with two types of electricity producers, fossil fuel utilities generating emissions, and suppliers of electricity from renewable resources such as wind energy. We account for the vertical structure of the wind-energy sector by considering wind-turbine producers engaged in...

This paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of agents who face a binary decision problem. The...

Die Riester-Förderung soll dazu beitragen, dass häufiger und mehr für die Altersvorsorge gespart wird. Der Einfluss der Riester-Förderung auf die Sparneigung von Haushalten mit niedrigem Einkommen ist dabei ein zentrales Kriterium zur ökonomischen Evaluation dieser Politik. Unsere...